How much warmer?

The average daily high, month by month, at 2 places people travel to: 1981–1990 against 2017–2026. The largest change is Bali in November: +2.0°C. 1 of the 2 are clearly warmer in at least half the year, and across all of them a day is 1.0°C warmer on average.

PlaceThe year, on averageMonths clearly warmerMost changed
Bali Indonesia +1.5° 12 of 12 November, +2.0°
Bangkok Thailand +0.4° 4 of 12 November, +1.3°

How this is measured

Each figure is the average of a month's daily highs over ten years, for the nearest grid cell of ERA5, the Copernicus Climate Change Service's reanalysis — the same data every month on this site is built from. Both decades come from the same cell and the same model, so whatever the model gets wrong about a place is wrong in both, and what is left is the change.

A change is called clear when it is at least twice its standard error: bigger than the ordinary difference between one year and the next. Only clear changes are counted, named or shown in bold. A smaller one may be real, but ten years cannot tell it from weather. A grid cell is 9 to 25 km across, so a coastal place's cell is often part sea, which damps the change.

The table is free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with a credit and a link to this page: warming.csv, one row per place and month.